On Wednesday (August 13, Beijing time), spot gold was trading around $3,350 an ounce. Gold prices rose slightly on Tuesday. After U.S. inflation data maintained expectations of a Fed rate cut, people's attention turned to other key economic data to be released this week. U.S. crude oil was trading around $63.12 a barrel. Oil prices fell on Tuesday as traders awaited the U.S. Energy Information Administration's inventory report and began to pay attention to signs that demand may decline when the summer driving season ends in early September.
Key points of the day
stock market
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs on Tuesday after news that inflation rose roughly in line with expectations in July boosted bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month.
The U.S. Department of Labor said the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% in July from the previous month, while the annual inflation rate was slightly lower than expected, which prompted calls from U.S. President Trump for lower interest rates.
Shorter-dated Treasury yields, which reflect interest rate expectations, fell, and interest rate futures showed traders believed there was an 88.8% probability that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by about 25 basis points in September.
"The CPI data was supportive for the stock market overall, we got some good news, the Fed looks more likely to cut rates in September, and there's likely to be more transitional inflation," said Katherine Bordlemay, co-head of fundamental equity client portfolio management at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. "My overarching guiding thought is to continue to favor the big companies getting bigger theme. We continue to believe in big tech and technology."
Alphabet shares rose 1.2% after Perplexity offered $34.5 billion in cash for its Chrome browser. Intel climbed 5.6% after Trump said he met with Intel CEO Lip-Woo Tan on Monday and praised him, calling the meeting "very interesting."
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.10% to 44,458.61 points; the S&P 500 rose 1.13% to 6,445.76 points; and the Nasdaq rose 1.39% to 21,681.90 points.
Weeks after Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, concerns about the quality of economic data remain as nonfarm payrolls in previous months were revised downward. Markets are watching the developments of EJ Antoni, Trump's nominee for Bureau of Labor Statistics and potential candidates for the top Fed post.
"We're still early in this process, and just as the Fed is set to start cutting rates in the fall, inflation data could start to record some more direct tariff price increases, which would complicate any rate cut decisions," said John Velis, macro strategist at NYCB.
The United States and China extended their tariff truce until November 10, avoiding significant tariffs on each other's goods, which has provided relief to markets. U.S. stocks have rebounded in recent weeks on strong tech earnings, easing trade tensions and growing expectations of interest rate cuts.
Data from Bank of America Global Research showed that funds flowing into U.S. stocks last week were the highest in two years.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose nearly 3%. The index tracking airline stocks surged 8.87%, its biggest one-day gain in more than a month, after data showed airfares rose 4% in July.
Bank stocks rose, with the S&P 500 bank index up 2.1 percent, as analysts said a steepening yield curve would help bank profits by allowing them to borrow cheaply and lend at higher rates.
Cardinal Health shares fell 7% after the drug distributor said it would acquire healthcare management company Solaris for $1.9 billion.
Gold Market
Gold prices edged up on Tuesday as U.S. inflation data maintained expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, with attention turning to other key economic data due this week. Spot gold was trading at $3,347.34 an ounce, up 0.1%.
The U.S. consumer price index rose 0.2% last month after a 0.3% increase in June. For the 12 months through July, the consumer price index rose 2.7%. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a 0.2% month-over-month increase in July and a 2.8% year-over-year increase.
"The inflation data appears to be mixed but supports a rate cut," said Bob Haberkorn, market strategist at RJO Futures. "Traders are remaining cautious as we are at a critical juncture awaiting further economic indicators." Traders maintained their bets on U.S. rate cuts in September and December after the CPI data was released.
Other data due this week include the U.S. producer price index, weekly unemployment claims and retail sales.
Meanwhile, the United States and China have extended a tariff truce for 90 days, avoiding the imposition of significant tariffs on each other's goods.
U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled down 0.2% at $3,399 an ounce. Gold prices fell more than 2% on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump said on social media that he would not impose tariffs on imported gold bars. Reports of Washington imposing tariffs on imported 1-kilogram gold bars had sent U.S. gold futures to a record high last Friday.
Among other metals, spot silver (38.57.0.56.1.48%) rose 0.9% to $37.92 an ounce; platinum rose 0.9% to $1,338.73; and palladium fell 0.5% to $1,129.57.
Oil Market
Oil prices fell on Tuesday as traders awaited the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) inventory report and began to focus on signs that demand may decline as the summer driving season ends in early September.
Brent crude futures settled at $66.12 a barrel, down 0.77%, while U.S. crude futures settled at $63.17, down 1.24%.
“It’s definitely seasonality,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital in New York. “We haven’t been getting any lift from the stock market and we’ve had positive inflation reports that point to a rate cut.”
U.S. consumer prices rose in July as tariffs made imported goods more expensive, pushing a gauge of core inflation to its biggest month-on-month increase in six months. Kilduff said diesel demand, which drives oil demand, appears to be softening.
Outlooks released by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the EIA indicate that oil production will increase this year, but both expect U.S. production to decline in 2026 while oil and gas production will increase in other parts of the world.
OPEC said in its monthly report on Tuesday that global oil demand would rise by 1.38 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, 100,000 bpd higher than its previous forecast. Its forecast for 2025 remained unchanged.
The EIA forecast in its monthly report on Tuesday that U.S. crude production will reach a record 13.41 million barrels per day in 2025 as well productivity increases, but lower oil prices will lead to a decline in production in 2026.
China released a joint statement on the China-US Stockholm Economic and Trade Talks on Tuesday, indicating that both China and the United States will again suspend the implementation of the 24% tariffs on each other's goods for 90 days starting from August 12, while retaining the remaining 10% tariffs on these goods.
Oil markets could also be pressured by a meeting between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday to discuss ending Russia's war in Ukraine.
International News
Iran: Can directly engage in nuclear negotiations with the US if conditions are right
According to a report by the Islamic Republic News Agency on the 12th, Iran's First Vice President Areef said in the capital Tehran that day that if the conditions are right, Iran can conduct nuclear negotiations directly with the United States, but the US demand that Iran completely abandon its uranium enrichment activities is a "big joke."
Russian and US presidents to meet in Anchorage
On August 12, local time, the U.S. White House stated that U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin will meet in Anchorage, the largest city in Alaska, on August 15, local time.
OPEC raises its 2026 global oil demand forecast
In its monthly oil market report released on the 12th, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) raised its forecast for global oil demand growth through 2026, while maintaining its 2025 forecast unchanged. The report projected that global daily oil demand in 2026 would increase by approximately 1.38 million barrels per day (bpd) from 2025 to 106.5 million bpd, while in 2025, global daily oil demand would increase by 1.29 million bpd from 2017 to 105.1 million bpd.
Trump's pick for the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has suggested halting monthly employment data.
E.J. Antoni, an economist at the Heritage Foundation and President Trump's nominee for Bureau of Labor Statistics, previously told Fox Business Network that the agency should suspend its monthly jobs report. "Until the problems are corrected, the Bureau of Labor Statistics should suspend the monthly jobs report but continue to publish the more accurate but less timely quarterly data," Antoni said. The Fox Business Network interview with Antoni took place before Trump publicly announced his nomination on Monday. Antoni has long been critical of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Trump administration is casting a 'wider net' in search of successor to Fed chairman
According to Politico, Trump administration officials are expanding their list of candidates to replace Federal Reserve Chairman Powell next year, seeking someone who can command both the president's trust and the confidence of financial markets. An administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity, revealed that candidates under consideration include current Fed Vice Chairs Jefferson and Bowman; Dallas Fed President Logan; former St. Louis Fed President Bullard; and macroeconomic adviser Marc Sumerlin. The official also suggested that additional private sector candidates might be considered. These candidates would add to a list that already includes White House National Economic Council Director Hassett, former Fed Governor Warsh, and current Fed Governor Waller. The list suggests officials' goal is to offer Trump a diverse range of options to replace Powell.
India's oil imports from Russia rose to 45% in June
According to data from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in its August report, India's oil imports from Russia rose to 45% of its total imports in June, up from 44% in May. Kpler data, cited by OPEC, shows that Russian oil accounted for 45% of India's total imports in June, up from 44% the previous month. Iraq's supply accounted for 18%, and Saudi Arabia's 12%. India's total oil imports fell below 5 million barrels per day (bpd) for the first time in five months in June, reaching 4.86 million bpd, a 2% decrease from the previous month.
Trump: Powell should cut interest rates immediately! Consider filing a major lawsuit against him
US President Trump posted on social media: "Mr. Too Late" Powell must lower interest rates now. He always does it too late, and the damage he causes is immeasurable. Fortunately, the economy is doing very well, and we have prevailed over Powell and his complacent committee. However, I am considering allowing a major lawsuit against Powell for the abysmal and grossly incompetent job he did managing the construction of the Federal Reserve building. $3 billion was spent on a job that should have cost $50 million to repair. That's not good!
Netanyahu ordered to attend corruption hearings three times a week
According to a report by The Times of Israel on the 12th, the Jerusalem District Court has ordered Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to attend three hearings per week in his corruption case starting in November, citing the need to expedite the proceedings. The Israeli court system is currently in summer recess, and corruption hearings are set to resume in September. The Times of Israel, citing a Jerusalem District Court judge, reported that the frequency of hearings will be increased to four per week starting in November, with Netanyahu required to attend three of them until the cross-examination process is complete. (Xinhua News Agency)
U.S. national debt exceeds $37 trillion for the first time
On August 12th, local time, as the U.S. federal government continued to accumulate debt at a record pace, the U.S. national debt surpassed $3.7 trillion for the first time. The latest data released by the U.S. Treasury Department showed that as of that afternoon, the total national debt had reached $370,048,176,258,420. Responding to this, Rep. Maia McGuinness, Chair of the Committee on Budget and Budget, stated that the U.S. fiscal situation is seriously out of balance, yet Congress continues to exacerbate it.
